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In return, the acquisition could potentially boost Berkshire’s earnings per share by 7% to 8% and provide a cash return of 6% to 7%. For Southwest, Morgan Stanley believes there are five reasons that becoming part of the Berkshire family would help create long-term value for the airline: • Remove near-term “noise” of monthly and quarterly unit revenue reporting • Take further advantage of its financial strength • Reduce focus on supporting industry capacity discipline Southwest shares ran up 1.6% in afternoon trade, putting them on track to close at the highest level since March 20. Among shares of Berkshire’s other airline holdings, Delta Air Lines’s DAL, +0.97% climbed 1.4%, United Continental’s UAL, +0.57% rose 1.0% and American Airlines’s AAL, +0.31% gained 0.7%. Morgan Stanley cautioned, however, that Buffett buying Southwest wouldn’t be an all-clear sign to buy other airline stocks. On the plus side, it would put a “stamp of approval” on the industry and investor flows out of Southwest could support shares of other airlines. But on the downside, history suggests that if Berkshire were to buy Southwest, it would divest its current holdings in other airlines, which would present a near-term overhang. Increased competition could also be a concern, as Southwest would likely emphasize growth over near-term unit revenue performance. The analysts cited previous examples, in which Berkshire sold its other railroad holdings after its buyout of Burlington Northern Santa Fe, and how low-cost insurer Geico has more than tripled its market share since the 1996 acquisition at the expense of larger rivals. “Over time, the [airline] industry could be more competitive,” as Southwest prioritizes long-term growth over short-term performance, the analysts wrote.
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